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Jammerbugt vs Esbjerg — 1. Division 2018

Jammerbugt
Jammerbugt
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
9/26/20211. Division1. Division · Round 10Jetsmark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jammerbugt29%
×Draw23%
Esbjerg49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jammerbugt
1.38
Esbjerg
1.86

Esbjerg creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

creates per match

Jammerbugt
1.13
Esbjerg
1.34

allows per match

Jammerbugt
2.38
Esbjerg
1.63

finishing

Jammerbugt+0.00on par
Esbjerg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jammerbugt ↓

Esbjerg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jammerbugt or draw
51%
Jammerbugt or Esbjerg
77%
Draw or Esbjerg
71%

Winning margin

Jammerbugt wins by 2+
13%
Esbjerg wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Jammerbugt 1+ goals
75%
Jammerbugt 2+ goals
40%
Jammerbugt 3+ goals
16%
Esbjerg 1+ goals
84%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
55%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Jammerbugt (draw refunded)
37%
Esbjerg (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jammerbugt at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Esbjerg away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jammerbugt attack 1.13 + Esbjerg defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Esbjerg attack 1.34 + Jammerbugt defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jammerbugt scores more
29%
level
23%
Esbjerg scores more
49%

Esbjerg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jammerbugt vs Esbjerg

Jammerbugt beat Esbjerg 1-0 in 1. Division on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Jetsmark Stadion in Pandrup.