Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Esbjerg vs Jammerbugt — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Esbjerg
Esbjerg
CANC
11:00
Jammerbugt
Jammerbugt
10/9/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 10Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Esbjerg53%
×Draw21%
Jammerbugt25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esbjerg
2.10
Jammerbugt
1.40

Esbjerg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

creates per match

Esbjerg
2.71
Jammerbugt
1.69

allows per match

Esbjerg
1.10
Jammerbugt
1.50

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par
Jammerbugt+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Jammerbugt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw
75%
Esbjerg or Jammerbugt
79%
Draw or Jammerbugt
47%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+
32%
Jammerbugt wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals
88%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
62%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
35%
Jammerbugt 1+ goals
75%
Jammerbugt 2+ goals
41%
Jammerbugt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)
68%
Jammerbugt (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Jammerbugt away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 2.71 + Jammerbugt defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Jammerbugt attack 1.69 + Esbjerg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Esbjerg scores more
53%
level
21%
Jammerbugt scores more
25%

Esbjerg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esbjerg face Jammerbugt (2nd Division - Group 1)

2nd Division - Group 1 returns with Esbjerg hosting Jammerbugt. Match starts October 9, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Esbjerg host Jammerbugt at Blue Water Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.