Jamaica W 3–2 South Africa W: Result & Stats

Jamaica W

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

South Africa W

K. J. McKenna 76'

D. Spence 63'

V. Sampson 58'

A. Motau 90+1'

L. Motlhalo 19'

12/3/2024

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Catherine Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jamaica W64%

×Draw21%

South Africa W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jamaica WExpected goals in this matchSouth Africa W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.90

Jamaica W

2.04

South Africa W

0.90

Jamaica W creates 127% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Jamaica W

1.80

South Africa W

1.00

allows per match

Jamaica W

0.80

South Africa W

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jamaica W+0.00on par

South Africa W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamaica W ↓

South Africa W →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Jamaica W or draw

84%

Jamaica W or South Africa W

79%

Draw or South Africa W

36%

Winning margin

Jamaica W wins by 2+

39%

South Africa W wins by 2+

Team goals

Jamaica W 1+ goals

87%

Jamaica W 2+ goals

60%

Jamaica W 3+ goals

33%

South Africa W 1+ goals

59%

South Africa W 2+ goals

23%

South Africa W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Jamaica W (draw refunded)

80%

South Africa W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jamaica W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

South Africa W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jamaica W attack 1.80 + South Africa W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.04

South Africa W attack 1.00 + Jamaica W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Jamaica W scores more

64%

level

21%

South Africa W scores more

16%

Jamaica W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Jamaica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

L. Motlhalo

46'

N. Kgoale← A. Mthandi

50'

58'

V. Sampson

60'

K. Dhlamini← A. Motau

63'

D. Spence

71'

K. Shaw← K. J. McKenna

71'

S. Hayles← S. Buckley

71'

K. Biyana← K. Biyana

76'

K. J. McKenna

84'

K. Biyana

85'

K. Biyana← S. Ntoane

89'

N. Phahla← N. Phahla

90+1'

A. Motau

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff