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Jamaica vs Mexico — League #22 2026

Jamaica
Jamaica
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Mexico
Mexicoadvanced
R. Alvarado 90+3'
L. Chávez 30'
H. Martín 2'
7/13/2023League #22League #22 · Semi-finalsAllegiant Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jamaica10%
×Draw16%
Mexico74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jamaica
0.75
Mexico
2.42

Mexico creates 223% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Jamaica
1.00
Mexico
2.50

allows per match

Jamaica
2.33
Mexico
0.50

finishing

Jamaica+0.00on par
Mexico+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamaica ↓

Mexico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jamaica or draw
26%
Jamaica or Mexico
84%
Draw or Mexico
90%

Winning margin

Jamaica wins by 2+
3%
Mexico wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Jamaica 1+ goals
53%
Jamaica 2+ goals
17%
Jamaica 3+ goals
4%
Mexico 1+ goals
91%
Mexico 2+ goals
69%
Mexico 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Jamaica (draw refunded)
12%
Mexico (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamaica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Mexico away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamaica attack 1.00 + Mexico defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Mexico attack 2.50 + Jamaica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Jamaica scores more
10%
level
16%
Mexico scores more
74%

Mexico at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
J. GallardoMexicoMexico · D
8.0

Match Events

2'
H. Martín
29'
Damion Lowe
30'
L. Chávez
39'
Kevon Lambert
46'
S. Nicholson← K. Lambert
51'
D. Lembikisa← J. Brown
54'
Di'Shon Bernard
61'
Uriel Antuna
63'
C. Rodríguez← É. Sánchez
63'
S. Giménez← H. Martín
72'
E. Álvarez← L. Chávez
72'
R. Alvarado← U. Antuna
84'
D. Johnson← J. Latibeaudiere
84'
D. Richards← M. Antonio
87'
D. Lainez← O. Pineda
90'
Edson Álvarez
90+3'
R. Alvarado↳ J. Gallardo

Possession

45%Jamaica

Shots

8Jamaica

Pass accuracy

48%Jamaica

Statistics

JamaicaMexico
Overview
45%Possession55%
8Total Shots13
3Corners8
15Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots13
3On Target5
4Off Target3
1Blocked5
5Inside Box4
3Outside Box9
Passing
45%Possession55%
307Total Passes379
215Accurate Passes293
70%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Jamaica vs Mexico

Mexico beat Jamaica 3-0 in League #22 on July 13, 2023.

Goals: H. Martín (2'), L. Chávez (30'), R. Alvarado (90+3').

Mexico controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.