Jalapa 0–0 UNAN Managua: Result & Stats

Jalapa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UNAN Managua

2/9/2026

Primera Division · Clausura - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Jalapa54%

×Draw25%

UNAN Managua22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JalapaExpected goals in this matchUNAN Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.94

Jalapa

1.64

UNAN Managua

0.94

Jalapa creates 74% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 93 away

1.30

creates per match

1.08

0.79

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Jalapa

1.30

UNAN Managua

1.08

allows per match

Jalapa

0.79

UNAN Managua

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jalapa+0.00on par

UNAN Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jalapa ↓

UNAN Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jalapa or draw

78%

Jalapa or UNAN Managua

75%

Draw or UNAN Managua

46%

Winning margin

Jalapa wins by 2+

29%

UNAN Managua wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jalapa 1+ goals

81%

Jalapa 2+ goals

49%

Jalapa 3+ goals

23%

UNAN Managua 1+ goals

61%

UNAN Managua 2+ goals

24%

UNAN Managua 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jalapa (draw refunded)

71%

UNAN Managua (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jalapa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 131 matches

UNAN Managua away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jalapa attack 1.30 + UNAN Managua defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.64

UNAN Managua attack 1.08 + Jalapa defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jalapa scores more

54%

level

25%

UNAN Managua scores more

22%

Jalapa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jalapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff