Jalapa 1–0 H&H Export: Result & Stats

Jalapa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

H&H Export

8/2/2025

Primera Division · Apertura - 4Estadio Alejandro Ramos Turcio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Jalapa53%

×Draw25%

H&H Export22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JalapaExpected goals in this matchH&H Export

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.92

Jalapa

1.59

H&H Export

0.92

Jalapa creates 73% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 96 away

1.30

creates per match

1.05

0.79

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Jalapa

1.30

H&H Export

1.05

allows per match

Jalapa

0.79

H&H Export

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jalapa+0.00on par

H&H Export+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jalapa ↓

H&H Export →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jalapa or draw

78%

Jalapa or H&H Export

75%

Draw or H&H Export

47%

Winning margin

Jalapa wins by 2+

28%

H&H Export wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jalapa 1+ goals

80%

Jalapa 2+ goals

47%

Jalapa 3+ goals

21%

H&H Export 1+ goals

60%

H&H Export 2+ goals

23%

H&H Export 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jalapa (draw refunded)

71%

H&H Export (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jalapa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 131 matches

H&H Export away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.88 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jalapa attack 1.30 + H&H Export defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

H&H Export attack 1.05 + Jalapa defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jalapa scores more

53%

level

25%

H&H Export scores more

22%

Jalapa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jalapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Jalapa vs H&H Export

Jalapa vs H&H Export — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Jalapa vs H&H Export