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Jalapa vs Deportivo Ocotal — Primera Division 2026

Jalapa
Jalapa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo Ocotal
Deportivo Ocotal
3/3/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 7Estadio Alejandro Ramos Turcio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Jalapa61%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Ocotal17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jalapa
1.81
Deportivo Ocotal
0.82

Jalapa creates 121% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 112 away

creates per match

Jalapa
1.30
Deportivo Ocotal
0.86

allows per match

Jalapa
0.79
Deportivo Ocotal
2.33

finishing

Jalapa+0.00on par
Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jalapa ↓

Deportivo Ocotal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jalapa or draw
83%
Jalapa or Deportivo Ocotal
77%
Draw or Deportivo Ocotal
39%

Winning margin

Jalapa wins by 2+
35%
Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jalapa 1+ goals
84%
Jalapa 2+ goals
54%
Jalapa 3+ goals
27%
Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals
20%
Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jalapa (draw refunded)
79%
Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jalapa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 131 matches

Deportivo Ocotal away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.33 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jalapa attack 1.30 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Deportivo Ocotal attack 0.86 + Jalapa defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Jalapa scores more
61%
level
23%
Deportivo Ocotal scores more
17%

Jalapa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Jalapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Jalapa 2–2 Deportivo Ocotal

Jalapa and Deportivo Ocotal drew 2-2 in Primera Division on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Ramos Turcio in Jalapa.