Deportivo Ocotal 2–0 Jalapa: Result & Stats

Deportivo Ocotal

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jalapa

3/15/2025

Primera Division · Clausura - 12Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Deportivo Ocotal53%

×Draw25%

Jalapa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo OcotalExpected goals in this matchJalapa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.98

Deportivo Ocotal

1.64

Jalapa

0.98

Deportivo Ocotal creates 67% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 131 away

1.20

creates per match

0.91

1.04

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Deportivo Ocotal

1.20

Jalapa

0.91

allows per match

Deportivo Ocotal

1.04

Jalapa

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Jalapa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Ocotal ↓

Jalapa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Ocotal or draw

77%

Deportivo Ocotal or Jalapa

75%

Draw or Jalapa

47%

Winning margin

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+

28%

Jalapa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals

81%

Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals

49%

Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals

23%

Jalapa 1+ goals

62%

Jalapa 2+ goals

26%

Jalapa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)

70%

Jalapa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Ocotal at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

Jalapa away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.08 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Ocotal attack 1.20 + Jalapa defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.64

Jalapa attack 0.91 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo Ocotal scores more

53%

level

25%

Jalapa scores more

23%

Deportivo Ocotal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Ocotal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff