Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jalapa vs Deportivo Las Sabanas — Primera Division 2019

Jalapa
Jalapa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Las Sabanas
Deportivo Las Sabanas
3/1/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 6Estadio Alejandro Ramos Turcio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jalapa60%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Las Sabanas16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jalapa
1.63
Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.69

Jalapa creates 136% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 19 away

creates per match

Jalapa
1.30
Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.58

allows per match

Jalapa
0.79
Deportivo Las Sabanas
1.95

finishing

Jalapa+0.00on par
Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jalapa ↓

Deportivo Las Sabanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jalapa or draw
84%
Jalapa or Deportivo Las Sabanas
76%
Draw or Deportivo Las Sabanas
40%

Winning margin

Jalapa wins by 2+
33%
Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jalapa 1+ goals
80%
Jalapa 2+ goals
48%
Jalapa 3+ goals
22%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals
50%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals
15%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jalapa (draw refunded)
79%
Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jalapa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 131 matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jalapa attack 1.30 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.63

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.58 + Jalapa defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jalapa scores more
60%
level
24%
Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more
16%

Jalapa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jalapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jalapa vs Deportivo Las Sabanas

Jalapa beat Deportivo Las Sabanas 1-0 in Primera Division on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Ramos Turcio in Jalapa.