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JAK vs Coton Sport Ouidah — Championnat National 2019

JAK
JAK
FT
0 – 1
Coton Sport Ouidah
Coton Sport Ouidah
6/11/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 23Stade de Kétou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

JAK34%
×Draw30%
Coton Sport Ouidah36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JAK
1.02
Coton Sport Ouidah
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 94 away

creates per match

JAK
1.32
Coton Sport Ouidah
1.16

allows per match

JAK
0.94
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.73

finishing

JAK+0.00on par
Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAK ↓

Coton Sport Ouidah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JAK or draw
64%
JAK or Coton Sport Ouidah
70%
Draw or Coton Sport Ouidah
66%

Winning margin

JAK wins by 2+
13%
Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

JAK 1+ goals
64%
JAK 2+ goals
27%
JAK 3+ goals
8%
Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals
65%
Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals
28%
Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

JAK (draw refunded)
49%
Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Coton Sport Ouidah away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAK attack 1.32 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.02

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.16 + JAK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

JAK scores more
34%
level
30%
Coton Sport Ouidah scores more
36%

Coton Sport Ouidah at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Coton Sport Ouidah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: JAK 0–1 Coton Sport Ouidah

Coton Sport Ouidah beat JAK 1-0 in Championnat National on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Kétou in Kétou.