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JAK vs Ayema — Championnat National 2019

JAK
JAK
FT
1 – 2
Ayema
Ayema
3/29/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 24Stade de Kétou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

JAK38%
×Draw31%
Ayema31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JAK
1.06
Ayema
0.91

JAK creates 16% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 119 away

creates per match

JAK
1.32
Ayema
0.88

allows per match

JAK
0.94
Ayema
0.80

finishing

JAK+0.00on par
Ayema+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAK ↓

Ayema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

JAK or draw
69%
JAK or Ayema
69%
Draw or Ayema
62%

Winning margin

JAK wins by 2+
15%
Ayema wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

JAK 1+ goals
65%
JAK 2+ goals
29%
JAK 3+ goals
9%
Ayema 1+ goals
60%
Ayema 2+ goals
23%
Ayema 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

JAK (draw refunded)
56%
Ayema (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Ayema away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAK attack 1.32 + Ayema defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ayema attack 0.88 + JAK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

JAK scores more
38%
level
31%
Ayema scores more
31%

JAK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "JAK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: JAK 1–2 Ayema

Ayema beat JAK 2-1 in Championnat National on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Kétou in Kétou.