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JAK vs AS Cotonou — Championnat National 2019

JAK
JAK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
11/2/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 6Stade de Kétou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

JAK41%
×Draw30%
AS Cotonou29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JAK
1.14
AS Cotonou
0.91

JAK creates 25% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 113 away

creates per match

JAK
1.32
AS Cotonou
0.88

allows per match

JAK
0.94
AS Cotonou
0.95

finishing

JAK+0.00on par
AS Cotonou+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAK ↓

AS Cotonou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JAK or draw
71%
JAK or AS Cotonou
70%
Draw or AS Cotonou
59%

Winning margin

JAK wins by 2+
17%
AS Cotonou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

JAK 1+ goals
68%
JAK 2+ goals
32%
JAK 3+ goals
11%
AS Cotonou 1+ goals
60%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
23%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

JAK (draw refunded)
59%
AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

AS Cotonou away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAK attack 1.32 + AS Cotonou defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

AS Cotonou attack 0.88 + JAK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

JAK scores more
41%
level
30%
AS Cotonou scores more
29%

JAK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "JAK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JAK vs AS Cotonou

JAK beat AS Cotonou 1-0 in Championnat National on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Kétou in Kétou.