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Jaish vs Horriya — Premier League 2019

Jaish
Jaish
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Horriya
Horriya
2/13/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Abbasiyyin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Jaish55%
×Draw26%
Horriya19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaish
1.54
Horriya
0.78

Jaish creates 97% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 39 away

creates per match

Jaish
1.46
Horriya
0.62

allows per match

Jaish
0.93
Horriya
1.62

finishing

Jaish+0.00on par
Horriya+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaish ↓

Horriya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jaish or draw
81%
Jaish or Horriya
74%
Draw or Horriya
45%

Winning margin

Jaish wins by 2+
29%
Horriya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jaish 1+ goals
79%
Jaish 2+ goals
45%
Jaish 3+ goals
20%
Horriya 1+ goals
54%
Horriya 2+ goals
18%
Horriya 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jaish (draw refunded)
74%
Horriya (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaish at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

Horriya away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaish attack 1.46 + Horriya defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Horriya attack 0.62 + Jaish defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jaish scores more
55%
level
26%
Horriya scores more
19%

Jaish at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaish vs Horriya

Horriya beat Jaish 1-0 in Premier League on February 13, 2026.

The match was played at Abbasiyyin Stadium in Damascus.