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Jaish vs Foutoua — Premier League 2019

Jaish
Jaish
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Foutoua
Foutoua
12/18/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Al Jalaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Jaish45%
×Draw28%
Foutoua27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaish
1.31
Foutoua
0.96

Jaish creates 36% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 81 away

creates per match

Jaish
1.46
Foutoua
0.98

allows per match

Jaish
0.93
Foutoua
1.17

finishing

Jaish+0.00on par
Foutoua+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaish ↓

Foutoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jaish or draw
73%
Jaish or Foutoua
72%
Draw or Foutoua
55%

Winning margin

Jaish wins by 2+
21%
Foutoua wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jaish 1+ goals
73%
Jaish 2+ goals
38%
Jaish 3+ goals
14%
Foutoua 1+ goals
62%
Foutoua 2+ goals
25%
Foutoua 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jaish (draw refunded)
62%
Foutoua (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaish at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

Foutoua away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaish attack 1.46 + Foutoua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Foutoua attack 0.98 + Jaish defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jaish scores more
45%
level
28%
Foutoua scores more
27%

Jaish at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaish vs Foutoua

Foutoua beat Jaish 1-0 in Premier League on December 18, 2023.

The match was played at Al Jalaa Stadium in Damascus.