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Jaish vs Efrin — Premier League 2019

Jaish
Jaish
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Efrin
Efrin
4/18/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Al-Fayhaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Jaish64%
×Draw21%
Efrin15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaish
2.00
Efrin
0.85

Jaish creates 135% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 13 away

creates per match

Jaish
1.46
Efrin
0.77

allows per match

Jaish
0.93
Efrin
2.54

finishing

Jaish+0.00on par
Efrin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaish ↓

Efrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jaish or draw
85%
Jaish or Efrin
79%
Draw or Efrin
36%

Winning margin

Jaish wins by 2+
39%
Efrin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jaish 1+ goals
86%
Jaish 2+ goals
59%
Jaish 3+ goals
32%
Efrin 1+ goals
57%
Efrin 2+ goals
21%
Efrin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jaish (draw refunded)
81%
Efrin (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaish at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

Efrin away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaish attack 1.46 + Efrin defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.00

Efrin attack 0.77 + Jaish defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Jaish scores more
64%
level
21%
Efrin scores more
15%

Jaish at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Jaish 2–1 Efrin

Jaish beat Efrin 2-1 in Premier League on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Fayhaa Stadium in Damascus.