Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jaish vs Al Wahda — Premier League 2019

Jaish
Jaish
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Al Wahda
Al Wahda
5/31/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Al-Fayhaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Jaish38%
×Draw29%
Al Wahda33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaish
1.17
Al Wahda
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 82 away

creates per match

Jaish
1.46
Al Wahda
1.21

allows per match

Jaish
0.93
Al Wahda
0.88

finishing

Jaish+0.00on par
Al Wahda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaish ↓

Al Wahda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jaish or draw
67%
Jaish or Al Wahda
71%
Draw or Al Wahda
62%

Winning margin

Jaish wins by 2+
16%
Al Wahda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jaish 1+ goals
69%
Jaish 2+ goals
33%
Jaish 3+ goals
11%
Al Wahda 1+ goals
66%
Al Wahda 2+ goals
29%
Al Wahda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jaish (draw refunded)
54%
Al Wahda (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaish at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

Al Wahda away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.88 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaish attack 1.46 + Al Wahda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Al Wahda attack 1.21 + Jaish defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jaish scores more
38%
level
29%
Al Wahda scores more
33%

Jaish at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jaish 1 – 3 Al Wahda

Al Wahda beat Jaish 3-1 in Premier League on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Fayhaa Stadium in Damascus.