Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jaish vs Al Majd — Premier League 2019

Jaish
Jaish
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Majd
Al Majd
9/10/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Al Jalaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Jaish53%
×Draw23%
Al Majd24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaish
1.78
Al Majd
1.11

Jaish creates 60% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 10 away

creates per match

Jaish
1.46
Al Majd
1.30

allows per match

Jaish
0.93
Al Majd
2.10

finishing

Jaish+0.00on par
Al Majd+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaish ↓

Al Majd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jaish or draw
76%
Jaish or Al Majd
77%
Draw or Al Majd
47%

Winning margin

Jaish wins by 2+
29%
Al Majd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jaish 1+ goals
83%
Jaish 2+ goals
53%
Jaish 3+ goals
26%
Al Majd 1+ goals
67%
Al Majd 2+ goals
30%
Al Majd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jaish (draw refunded)
69%
Al Majd (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaish at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

Al Majd away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaish attack 1.46 + Al Majd defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.78

Al Majd attack 1.30 + Jaish defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jaish scores more
53%
level
23%
Al Majd scores more
24%

Jaish at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jaish 2 – 1 Al Majd

Jaish beat Al Majd 2-1 in Premier League on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Al Jalaa Stadium in Damascus.