Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jaish vs Al-Horgelah — Premier League 2019

Jaish
Jaish
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Horgelah
Al-Horgelah
1/16/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Al-Fayhaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Jaish46%
×Draw27%
Al-Horgelah28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaish
1.42
Al-Horgelah
1.04

Jaish creates 37% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

creates per match

Jaish
1.46
Al-Horgelah
1.15

allows per match

Jaish
0.93
Al-Horgelah
1.38

finishing

Jaish+0.00on par
Al-Horgelah+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaish ↓

Al-Horgelah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jaish or draw
72%
Jaish or Al-Horgelah
73%
Draw or Al-Horgelah
54%

Winning margin

Jaish wins by 2+
22%
Al-Horgelah wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jaish 1+ goals
76%
Jaish 2+ goals
41%
Jaish 3+ goals
17%
Al-Horgelah 1+ goals
65%
Al-Horgelah 2+ goals
28%
Al-Horgelah 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jaish (draw refunded)
62%
Al-Horgelah (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaish at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

Al-Horgelah away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaish attack 1.46 + Al-Horgelah defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Al-Horgelah attack 1.15 + Jaish defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jaish scores more
46%
level
27%
Al-Horgelah scores more
28%

Jaish at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaish vs Al-Horgelah

Jaish beat Al-Horgelah 2-1 in Premier League on January 16, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Fayhaa Stadium in Damascus.