Jahn Regensburg 0–3 Hansa Rostock: Result & Stats

Jahn Regensburg

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hansa Rostock

J. Elvedi 64' (OG)

K. Pröger 26', 7'

10/29/2022

2. Bundesliga · Round 14Jahnstadion Regensburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Jahn Regensburg44%

×Draw26%

Hansa Rostock30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn RegensburgExpected goals in this matchHansa Rostock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.19

Jahn Regensburg

1.50

Hansa Rostock

1.19

Jahn Regensburg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 54 away

1.35

creates per match

0.94

1.43

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg

1.35

Hansa Rostock

0.94

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg

1.43

Hansa Rostock

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg ↓

Hansa Rostock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg or draw

70%

Jahn Regensburg or Hansa Rostock

74%

Draw or Hansa Rostock

56%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

22%

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

78%

Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

44%

Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

19%

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

70%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

33%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

60%

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.43 · 98 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.35 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jahn Regensburg scores more

44%

level

26%

Hansa Rostock scores more

30%

Jahn Regensburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

K. Pröger

Hansa Rostock · M

8.7

Match Events

7'

S. Breitkreuz← S. Kennedy

7'

K. Pröger

26'

K. Pröger↳ L. Hinterseer

48'

Lasse Günther

57'

Steve Breitkreuz

60'

H. Duljević← L. Hinterseer

62'

P. Owusu← S. Breitkreuz

62'

D. Vizinger← J. Mees

63'

Svante Ingelsson

64'

J. ElvediOwn goal

75'

Anderson Lucoqui← N. Neidhart

75'

K. Schumacher← K. Pröger

75'

R. van Drongelen← S. Ingelsson

76'

Damian Roßbach

82'

Konrad Faber

82'

N. Shipnoski← C. Makridis

82'

B. Idrizi← L. Günther

86'

Jan Elvedi

89'

Andreas Albers

90+1'

Kevin Schumacher

90+2'

N. Fröling← J. Verhoek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JahnHansa

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots10

9Corners3

11Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots10

4On Target3

10Off Target2

5Blocked5

12Inside Box8

7Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

393Total Passes249

286Accurate Passes143

73%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4