Jahn Regensburg U19 0–2 Erzgebirge Aue U19

Jahn Regensburg U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Erzgebirge Aue U19

D. Pavlov 67'

F. Mehlitz 53'

3/9/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 6Sportpark am Kaulbachweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Jahn Regensburg U1941%

×Draw21%

Erzgebirge Aue U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn Regensburg U19Expected goals in this matchErzgebirge Aue U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

2.00

Jahn Regensburg U19

2.09

Erzgebirge Aue U19

2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.96

creates per match

1.42

2.58

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg U19

1.96

Erzgebirge Aue U19

1.42

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg U19

2.58

Erzgebirge Aue U19

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg U19+0.00on par

Erzgebirge Aue U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg U19 ↓

Erzgebirge Aue U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg U19 or draw

62%

Jahn Regensburg U19 or Erzgebirge Aue U19

79%

Draw or Erzgebirge Aue U19

59%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg U19 wins by 2+

23%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg U19 1+ goals

88%

Jahn Regensburg U19 2+ goals

62%

Jahn Regensburg U19 3+ goals

34%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 1+ goals

86%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 2+ goals

59%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

Erzgebirge Aue U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg U19 attack 1.96 + Erzgebirge Aue U19 defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.09

Erzgebirge Aue U19 attack 1.42 + Jahn Regensburg U19 defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jahn Regensburg U19 scores more

41%

level

21%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 scores more

38%

Jahn Regensburg U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

L. Edimo← H. Heid

46'

53'

67'

68'

72'

L. Weidlich← L. Schön

72'

V. Fejzullahi← C. Zimmermann

76'

M. Kindel← A. Henkel

84'

L. Bahls← F. Fischer

84'

M. Wagner← L. Schimkus

Jahn

Erzgebirge

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Y. Ak

46'▲L. Edimo←▼H. Heid

46'▲L. Müller←▼A. Banden

72'▲L. Weidlich←▼L. Schön

72'▲V. Fejzullahi←▼C. Zimmermann

Jahn Regensburg U19 substitutes

EdimoMüllerWeidlichFejzullahiUgwuanena

Manager: P. Hauck

68'▲H. Kaps←▼L. Bräunig

76'▲M. Kindel←▼A. Henkel

84'▲L. Bahls←▼F. Fischer

84'▲M. Wagner←▼L. Schimkus

Erzgebirge Aue U19 substitutes

KapsKindelBahlsWagnerHilpertLandgrafBlankenburg