Jahn Regensburg U19 2–2 Augsburg U19

Jahn Regensburg U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Augsburg U19

9/14/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 6Sportpark am Kaulbachweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Jahn Regensburg U1937%

×Draw20%

Augsburg U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn Regensburg U19Expected goals in this matchAugsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

2.17

Jahn Regensburg U19

2.01

Augsburg U19

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 71 away

1.96

creates per match

1.77

2.58

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg U19

1.96

Augsburg U19

1.77

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg U19

2.58

Augsburg U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg U19+0.00on par

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg U19 ↓

Augsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg U19 or draw

57%

Jahn Regensburg U19 or Augsburg U19

80%

Draw or Augsburg U19

63%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg U19 wins by 2+

20%

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg U19 1+ goals

87%

Jahn Regensburg U19 2+ goals

59%

Jahn Regensburg U19 3+ goals

32%

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

64%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

Augsburg U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.06 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg U19 attack 1.96 + Augsburg U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.01

Augsburg U19 attack 1.77 + Jahn Regensburg U19 defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jahn Regensburg U19 scores more

37%

level

20%

Augsburg U19 scores more

43%

Augsburg U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff