Jahn Regensburg II 1–4 Eintracht Bamberg

Jahn Regensburg II

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Eintracht Bamberg

B. Fischer 76' (pen)

J. Sperling 80'

S. Kollmer 63'

T. Linz 59'

F. Popp 56'

10/22/2022

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 16Sportpark am Kaulbachweg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Jahn Regensburg II42%

×Draw23%

Eintracht Bamberg35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn Regensburg IIExpected goals in this matchEintracht Bamberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.56

Jahn Regensburg II

1.75

Eintracht Bamberg

1.56

Jahn Regensburg II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

2.22

creates per match

1.70

1.43

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg II

2.22

Eintracht Bamberg

1.70

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg II

1.43

Eintracht Bamberg

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg II ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg II or draw

65%

Jahn Regensburg II or Eintracht Bamberg

77%

Draw or Eintracht Bamberg

58%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+

22%

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals

83%

Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals

52%

Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals

25%

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals

79%

Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals

46%

Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)

55%

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg II attack 2.22 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.70 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jahn Regensburg II scores more

42%

level

23%

Eintracht Bamberg scores more

35%

Jahn Regensburg II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

F. Popp

59'

T. Linz

63'

S. Kollmer

76'

B. FischerPenalty

80'

J. Sperling

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff