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Jahn Regensburg II vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
5/8/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33Sportpark am Kaulbachweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Jahn Regensburg II53%
×Draw22%
ATSV Erlangen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jahn Regensburg II
1.96
ATSV Erlangen
1.29

Jahn Regensburg II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg II
2.22
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg II
1.43
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg II ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg II or draw
75%
Jahn Regensburg II or ATSV Erlangen
78%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
47%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
31%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
86%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
58%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
31%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
72%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
37%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
68%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg II attack 2.22 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.96

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jahn Regensburg II scores more
53%
level
22%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
25%

Jahn Regensburg II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jahn Regensburg II vs ATSV Erlangen

Jahn Regensburg II beat ATSV Erlangen 3-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 8, 2026.

The match was played at Sportpark am Kaulbachweg in Regensburg.