Jahn Regensburg II 0–1 ASV Neumarkt: Result & Stats

Jahn Regensburg II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ASV Neumarkt

7/20/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1Sportpark am Kaulbachweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Jahn Regensburg II49%

×Draw22%

ASV Neumarkt29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn Regensburg IIExpected goals in this matchASV Neumarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.50

Jahn Regensburg II

2.00

ASV Neumarkt

1.50

Jahn Regensburg II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

2.22

creates per match

1.58

1.43

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg II

2.22

ASV Neumarkt

1.58

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg II

1.43

ASV Neumarkt

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg II ↓

ASV Neumarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg II or draw

71%

Jahn Regensburg II or ASV Neumarkt

78%

Draw or ASV Neumarkt

51%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+

28%

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals

86%

Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals

59%

Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals

32%

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals

78%

ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals

44%

ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)

63%

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg II attack 2.22 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.00

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jahn Regensburg II scores more

49%

level

22%

ASV Neumarkt scores more

29%

Jahn Regensburg II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff