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Jahn Hiesfeld vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
CANC
14:00
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
1/31/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 23Stadion am Freibad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jahn Hiesfeld48%
×Draw21%
TVD Velbert31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jahn Hiesfeld
2.04
TVD Velbert
1.61

Jahn Hiesfeld creates 27% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 72 away

creates per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
2.00
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
1.85
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Hiesfeld ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Jahn Hiesfeld or draw
69%
Jahn Hiesfeld or TVD Velbert
79%
Draw or TVD Velbert
52%

Winning margin

Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
27%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
87%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
60%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
33%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
80%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
48%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
61%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Hiesfeld at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 2.00 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
48%
level
21%
TVD Velbert scores more
31%

Jahn Hiesfeld at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jahn Hiesfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jahn Hiesfeld vs TVD Velbert — Match Preview

Jahn Hiesfeld face TVD Velbert on January 31, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jahn Hiesfeld host TVD Velbert at Stadion am Freibad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.