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Jahn Hiesfeld vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
CANC
18:30
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
11/18/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 15Stadion am Freibad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jahn Hiesfeld48%
×Draw22%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jahn Hiesfeld
1.98
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.52

Jahn Hiesfeld creates 30% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 40 away

creates per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
2.00
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.20

allows per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
1.85
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.95

finishing

Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Hiesfeld ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Jahn Hiesfeld or draw
70%
Jahn Hiesfeld or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
78%
Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
52%

Winning margin

Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
27%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
86%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
59%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
31%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
78%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
45%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
62%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Hiesfeld at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 2.00 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
48%
level
22%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
30%

Jahn Hiesfeld at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jahn Hiesfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jahn Hiesfeld vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Match Preview

Jahn Hiesfeld face TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf on November 18, 2020 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jahn Hiesfeld host TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at Stadion am Freibad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.