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Jahn Hiesfeld vs SF Niederwenigern — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
CANC
14:00
SF Niederwenigern
SF Niederwenigern
3/21/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 31Stadion am Freibad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jahn Hiesfeld53%
×Draw21%
SF Niederwenigern26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jahn Hiesfeld
2.19
SF Niederwenigern
1.50

Jahn Hiesfeld creates 46% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 38 away

creates per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
2.00
SF Niederwenigern
1.16

allows per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
1.85
SF Niederwenigern
2.37

finishing

Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par
SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Hiesfeld ↓

SF Niederwenigern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Jahn Hiesfeld or draw
74%
Jahn Hiesfeld or SF Niederwenigern
79%
Draw or SF Niederwenigern
47%

Winning margin

Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
32%
SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
89%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
64%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
37%
SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals
78%
SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals
44%
SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
67%
SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Hiesfeld at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

SF Niederwenigern away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 2.00 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.19

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.16 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
53%
level
21%
SF Niederwenigern scores more
26%

Jahn Hiesfeld at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jahn Hiesfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jahn Hiesfeld vs SF Niederwenigern — Match Preview

Jahn Hiesfeld face SF Niederwenigern on March 21, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jahn Hiesfeld host SF Niederwenigern at Stadion am Freibad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.