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JAHE vs SNIM — Premier League 2020

JAHE
JAHE
FT
0 – 3
SNIM
SNIM
6/13/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 7Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

JAHE15%
×Draw19%
SNIM66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JAHE
0.98
SNIM
2.27

SNIM creates 132% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 78 away

creates per match

JAHE
0.91
SNIM
0.91

allows per match

JAHE
3.64
SNIM
1.05

finishing

JAHE+0.00on par
SNIM+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAHE ↓

SNIM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

JAHE or draw
34%
JAHE or SNIM
81%
Draw or SNIM
85%

Winning margin

JAHE wins by 2+
5%
SNIM wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

JAHE 1+ goals
62%
JAHE 2+ goals
26%
JAHE 3+ goals
8%
SNIM 1+ goals
90%
SNIM 2+ goals
66%
SNIM 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

JAHE (draw refunded)
19%
SNIM (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAHE at home — creates 0.91, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

SNIM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.05 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAHE attack 0.91 + SNIM defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

SNIM attack 0.91 + JAHE defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

JAHE scores more
15%
level
19%
SNIM scores more
66%

SNIM at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "SNIM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JAHE vs SNIM

SNIM beat JAHE 3-0 in Premier League on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.