JAHE 0–6 Nouadhibou: Result & Stats

JAHE

FT

0 – 6

Nouadhibou

2/4/2021

Premier League · Round 9Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

JAHE8%

×Draw14%

Nouadhibou78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JAHEExpected goals in this matchNouadhibou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

2.65

JAHE

0.74

Nouadhibou

2.65

Nouadhibou creates 258% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 80 away

0.91

creates per match

1.66

3.64

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

JAHE

0.91

Nouadhibou

1.66

allows per match

JAHE

3.64

Nouadhibou

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JAHE+0.00on par

Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAHE ↓

Nouadhibou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–212%

0–311%

0–47%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

JAHE or draw

22%

JAHE or Nouadhibou

86%

Draw or Nouadhibou

92%

Winning margin

JAHE wins by 2+

2%

Nouadhibou wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

JAHE 1+ goals

52%

JAHE 2+ goals

17%

JAHE 3+ goals

4%

Nouadhibou 1+ goals

93%

Nouadhibou 2+ goals

74%

Nouadhibou 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

JAHE (draw refunded)

10%

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAHE at home — creates 0.91, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

Nouadhibou away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAHE attack 0.91 + Nouadhibou defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.74

Nouadhibou attack 1.66 + JAHE defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

JAHE scores more

8%

level

14%

Nouadhibou scores more

78%

Nouadhibou at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff