Jaguares 2–2 Santa Fe: Result & Stats | Primera A

Jaguares

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Santa Fe

1/27/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 1Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jaguares43%

×Draw29%

Santa Fe28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.95

Jaguares

1.23

Santa Fe

0.95

Jaguares creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.24

creates per match

0.96

0.95

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Jaguares

1.24

Santa Fe

0.96

allows per match

Jaguares

0.95

Santa Fe

1.23

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Jaguares+0.14scores more

Santa Fe+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

72%

Jaguares or Santa Fe

71%

Draw or Santa Fe

57%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

19%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

71%

Jaguares 2+ goals

35%

Jaguares 3+ goals

13%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

61%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

25%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

60%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.24 + Santa Fe defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Santa Fe attack 0.96 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jaguares scores more

43%

level

29%

Santa Fe scores more

28%

Jaguares at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff