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Jaguares vs Patriotas — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
7/19/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 1Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Jaguares49%
×Draw28%
Patriotas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.34
Patriotas
0.83

Jaguares creates 61% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 109 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.06
Patriotas
0.70

allows per match

Jaguares
0.96
Patriotas
1.63

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
77%
Jaguares or Patriotas
72%
Draw or Patriotas
51%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
23%
Patriotas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
74%
Jaguares 2+ goals
39%
Jaguares 3+ goals
15%
Patriotas 1+ goals
56%
Patriotas 2+ goals
20%
Patriotas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
68%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.96 · 139 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.06 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Patriotas attack 0.70 + Jaguares defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jaguares scores more
49%
level
28%
Patriotas scores more
23%

Jaguares at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Jaguares 0–0 Patriotas

Jaguares and Patriotas drew 0-0 in Primera A on July 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería in Montería.