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Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin — Copa Colombia 2026

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
B. Leon 29'
8/7/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Play-offsEstadio Jaraguay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jaguares35%
×Draw27%
Independiente Medellin39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.23
Independiente Medellin
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.42
Independiente Medellin
1.61

allows per match

Jaguares
1.00
Independiente Medellin
1.04

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
61%
Jaguares or Independiente Medellin
73%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
65%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
15%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
71%
Jaguares 2+ goals
35%
Jaguares 3+ goals
13%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
73%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
38%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
47%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.42 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Independiente Medellin attack 1.61 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jaguares scores more
35%
level
27%
Independiente Medellin scores more
39%

Independiente Medellin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
B. Leon
Jaguares
Independiente
Gustavo Florentin
Manager: Gustavo Florentin
Alejandro Restrepo
Manager: Alejandro Restrepo

Copa Colombia: Jaguares 0–1 Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Jaguares 1-0 in Copa Colombia on August 7, 2025.

Goals: B. Leon (29').

The match was played at Estadio Jaraguay in Monteria.