Jaguares 1–1 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente Medellin

Y. Arboleda 14'

E. Cetré 74'

9/2/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 9Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Jaguares34%

×Draw30%

Independiente Medellin36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.04

Jaguares

1.00

Independiente Medellin

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.24

creates per match

1.12

0.95

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Jaguares

1.24

Independiente Medellin

1.12

allows per match

Jaguares

0.95

Independiente Medellin

0.76

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Jaguares+0.14scores more

Independiente Medellin+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

64%

Jaguares or Independiente Medellin

70%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

66%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

13%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

63%

Jaguares 2+ goals

26%

Jaguares 3+ goals

8%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

65%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

28%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

49%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.76 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.24 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Independiente Medellin attack 1.12 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Jaguares scores more

34%

level

30%

Independiente Medellin scores more

36%

Independiente Medellin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

E. Cetré

Independiente Medellin · M

8.2

Match Events

14'

Y. Arboleda↳ J. Molina

22'

Carlos Pájaro

28'

Edwuin Cetré

54'

F. Espinal← J. Molina

54'

A. Ibargüen← J. Cuesta

67'

Carlos Páez

70'

D. Torres← D. Loaiza

70'

J. Arizala← B. León

74'

E. Medrano← J. Alegría

74'

E. Cetré↳ A. Ibargüen

82'

Freddy EspinalCard upgrade

83'

Freddy Espinal

88'

L. Anaya← D. Padilla

90+1'

Mauricio Castaño

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresIndependiente

Overview

37%Possession63%

7Total Shots20

0Corners5

20Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots20

4On Target6

1Off Target7

2Blocked7

1Inside Box12

6Outside Box8

Passing

37%Possession63%

274Total Passes459

193Accurate Passes385

70%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

7Offsides1