Jaguares 0–2 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente Medellin

G. Cano 90+3', 43'

10/20/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 16Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jaguares39%

×Draw30%

Independiente Medellin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.96

Jaguares

1.11

Independiente Medellin

0.96

Jaguares creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.24

creates per match

0.97

0.95

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Jaguares

1.24

Independiente Medellin

0.97

allows per match

Jaguares

0.95

Independiente Medellin

0.98

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

Jaguares+0.14scores more

Independiente Medellin+0.63scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

69%

Jaguares or Independiente Medellin

70%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

61%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

16%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

67%

Jaguares 2+ goals

30%

Jaguares 3+ goals

10%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

62%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

25%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

56%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.24 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Independiente Medellin attack 0.97 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jaguares scores more

39%

level

30%

Independiente Medellin scores more

31%

Jaguares at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

G. Cano

Independiente Medellin · F

9.0

Match Events

32'

Alexis Hinestroza

43'

G. Cano↳ W. Parra

54'

59'

65'

67'

74'

79'

79'

80'

82'

J. Segura← Elvis Mosquera

86'

89'

90'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresIndependiente

Overview

62%Possession38%

11Total Shots12

3Corners2

21Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots12

1On Target3

6Off Target8

4Blocked1

4Inside Box6

7Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

475Total Passes283

413Accurate Passes216

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2