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Jaguares vs Huila — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Huila
Huila
3/11/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 8Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Jaguares47%
×Draw30%
Huila23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.21
Huila
0.74

Jaguares creates 64% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 70 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.06
Huila
0.53

allows per match

Jaguares
0.96
Huila
1.36

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
77%
Jaguares or Huila
70%
Draw or Huila
53%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
21%
Huila wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
70%
Jaguares 2+ goals
34%
Jaguares 3+ goals
12%
Huila 1+ goals
52%
Huila 2+ goals
17%
Huila 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
68%
Huila (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.96 · 139 matches

Huila away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.06 + Huila defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Huila attack 0.53 + Jaguares defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jaguares scores more
47%
level
30%
Huila scores more
23%

Jaguares at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaguares vs Huila

Huila beat Jaguares 2-1 in Primera A on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería in Montería.