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Huila vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Huila
Huila
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jaguares
Jaguares
8/28/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 8Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Huila47%
×Draw27%
Jaguares26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huila
1.41
Jaguares
0.97

Huila creates 45% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 138 away

creates per match

Huila
1.13
Jaguares
0.67

allows per match

Huila
1.26
Jaguares
1.69

finishing

Huila+0.00on par
Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huila or draw
74%
Huila or Jaguares
73%
Draw or Jaguares
53%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+
23%
Jaguares wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals
76%
Huila 2+ goals
41%
Huila 3+ goals
17%
Jaguares 1+ goals
62%
Jaguares 2+ goals
25%
Jaguares 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)
65%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.69 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.13 + Jaguares defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.41

Jaguares attack 0.67 + Huila defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huila scores more
47%
level
27%
Jaguares scores more
26%

Huila at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Huila 0–0 Jaguares

Huila and Jaguares drew 0-0 in Primera A on August 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid in Neiva.