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Jaguares vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
E. Serje 60'
F. Montero 22'
4/16/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 17Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jaguares42%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Cali29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.23
Deportivo Cali
0.96

Jaguares creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 39 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.13
Deportivo Cali
0.92

allows per match

Jaguares
1.00
Deportivo Cali
1.33

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
71%
Jaguares or Deportivo Cali
71%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
58%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
71%
Jaguares 2+ goals
35%
Jaguares 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
60%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.13 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Cali attack 0.92 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jaguares scores more
42%
level
29%
Deportivo Cali scores more
29%

Jaguares at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
P. RojasJaguaresJaguares · M
7.9

Match Events

15'
Darwin Andrade
22'
F. Montero↳ J. Caldera
45+3'
Jaime Diaz
45+3'
Jonathan Marulanda
56'
Adrian Palacios
60'
E. Serje↳ P. Rojas
66'
F. Castillo← J. Barrera
66'
Y. Gómez← A. Mejía
73'
L. Mosquera← E. Villalobos
73'
K. Lenis← D. Rodríguez
74'
J. Moreno← J. Córdoba
81'
J. Maza← D. Andrade
85'
F. Moreno← F. Montero
87'
E. Guerrero← Y. Arboleda

Possession

64%Jaguares

Shots

26Jaguares

Pass accuracy

53%Jaguares

Statistics

JaguaresDeportivo
Overview
64%Possession36%
26Total Shots8
10Corners3
9Fouls15
Shots
26Total Shots8
6On Target4
10Off Target0
10Blocked4
13Inside Box6
13Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
459Total Passes268
375Accurate Passes193
82%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Primera A: Jaguares 1–1 Deportivo Cali

Jaguares and Deportivo Cali drew 1-1 in Primera A on April 16, 2024.

Goals: F. Montero (22'), E. Serje (60').

Jaguares controlled possession (64%) and registered 26 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería in Montería.