Jaguares 1–0 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cali

A. Rentería 90'

11/13/2021

Primera A · Clausura - 19Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jaguares42%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Cali29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.97

Jaguares

1.22

Deportivo Cali

0.97

Jaguares creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.24

creates per match

0.99

0.95

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Jaguares

1.24

Deportivo Cali

0.99

allows per match

Jaguares

0.95

Deportivo Cali

1.20

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Jaguares+0.14scores more

Deportivo Cali+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

71%

Jaguares or Deportivo Cali

71%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

58%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

70%

Jaguares 2+ goals

34%

Jaguares 3+ goals

12%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

62%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.20 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.24 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Deportivo Cali attack 0.99 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jaguares scores more

42%

level

29%

Deportivo Cali scores more

29%

Jaguares at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

P. Rojas

Jaguares · M

7.9

Match Events

59'

K. Velasco← M. Ortega

59'

A. Colorado← A. Balanta

62'

H. Urrego

67'

J. C. Caldera Alvis

69'

F. Mosquera← C. Carrillo

73'

Angelo Rodríguez← J. Vásquez

79'

J. Lloreda← Y. Anchico

79'

L. Chiquillo← N. Tapia

81'

81'

87'

89'

89'

90+3'

90+6'

90+3'

J. Labastidas← A. Rentería

90+3'

J. Marrufo← I. Alba

90'

A. Rentería↳ P. Rojas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresDeportivo

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots11

6Corners3

14Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots11

4On Target4

4Off Target5

3Blocked2

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

319Total Passes370

257Accurate Passes320

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1