Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
Preview
23:10
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
10/11/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Jaraguay
Big match
36%
Jaguares
model favours
36%30%34%

Deportes Tolima score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Jaguares36%
×Draw30%
Deportes Tolima34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.09
Deportes Tolima
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.21
Deportes Tolima
1.05

allows per match

Jaguares
1.03
Deportes Tolima
0.98

finishing

Jaguares+0.08on par
Deportes Tolima-0.12scores less

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
66%
Jaguares or Deportes Tolima
70%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
64%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
15%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
66%
Jaguares 2+ goals
30%
Jaguares 3+ goals
10%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
65%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
28%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
52%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.03 · 7 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.98 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.21 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Deportes Tolima attack 1.05 + Jaguares defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Jaguares scores more
36%
level
30%
Deportes Tolima scores more
34%

Jaguares at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Deportes Tolima’s matches
  • 77% of Deportes Tolima’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Deportes Tolima have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Jaguares
Balanced
Deportes Tolima
Defensively solid
46%Possession52%
78%Pass accuracy80%
11.9Shots12.5
0.95xGBiggest gap1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
JaguaresDeportes Tolima

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
Jaguares
3
Draws
7
Deportes Tolima
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 50%
1–30–20–20–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Jaguares
LWDLW
Tolima
DLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima — Match Preview

Jaguares face Deportes Tolima on October 11, 2026 in this Primera A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jaguares host Deportes Tolima at Estadio Jaraguay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.