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Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
10/6/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 16Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Jaguares34%
×Draw30%
Deportes Tolima36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.04
Deportes Tolima
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 196 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.06
Deportes Tolima
1.22

allows per match

Jaguares
0.96
Deportes Tolima
1.01

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
64%
Jaguares or Deportes Tolima
70%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
66%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
13%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
65%
Jaguares 2+ goals
28%
Jaguares 3+ goals
9%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
66%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
30%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
48%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.96 · 139 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.06 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Jaguares defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Jaguares scores more
34%
level
30%
Deportes Tolima scores more
36%

Deportes Tolima at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima

Deportes Tolima beat Jaguares 1-0 in Primera A on October 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería in Montería.