Jaguares 2–1 Cortulua: Result & Stats | Primera A

Jaguares

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cortulua

M. Castaño 90+9', 33'

A. Castillo 72'

1/26/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 2Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jaguares48%

×Draw28%

Cortulua24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchCortulua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.88

Jaguares

1.36

Cortulua

0.88

Jaguares creates 55% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 30 away

1.06

creates per match

0.80

0.96

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Jaguares

1.06

Cortulua

0.80

allows per match

Jaguares

0.96

Cortulua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par

Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Cortulua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

76%

Jaguares or Cortulua

72%

Draw or Cortulua

52%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

23%

Cortulua wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

74%

Jaguares 2+ goals

39%

Jaguares 3+ goals

16%

Cortulua 1+ goals

59%

Cortulua 2+ goals

22%

Cortulua 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

66%

Cortulua (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.96 · 139 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.06 + Cortulua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cortulua attack 0.80 + Jaguares defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jaguares scores more

48%

level

28%

Cortulua scores more

24%

Jaguares at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Castaño

Jaguares · D

8.6

Match Events

33'

M. Castaño↳ A. Rentería

44'

César Carrillo

46'

A. Arroyo← J. Díaz

65'

Jaison Mina

68'

J. Palacios← G. Murillo

68'

K. Valencia← J. Valencia

69'

D. Padilla← J. Viveros

72'

A. Castillo↳ J. Pérez

75'

D. Rodríguez← M. Balanta

75'

J. Infante← C. Carrillo

88'

F. Delgado← J. Palacios

90+8'

Jonny Mosquera

90+7'

Ernesto Hernández

90+5'

Ernesto HernándezCard upgrade

90+9'

G. Gómez← A. Castillo

90+9'

M. Castaño

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresCortulua

Overview

50%Possession50%

7Total Shots14

1Corners4

20Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots14

4On Target1

2Off Target8

1Blocked5

3Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

344Total Passes343

260Accurate Passes266

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1