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Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
2/2/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 3Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Jaguares41%
×Draw30%
Bucaramanga29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.13
Bucaramanga
0.91

Jaguares creates 24% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 168 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.06
Bucaramanga
0.86

allows per match

Jaguares
0.96
Bucaramanga
1.20

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Bucaramanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
71%
Jaguares or Bucaramanga
70%
Draw or Bucaramanga
59%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
17%
Bucaramanga wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
68%
Jaguares 2+ goals
31%
Jaguares 3+ goals
11%
Bucaramanga 1+ goals
60%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
23%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
58%
Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.96 · 139 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.20 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.06 + Bucaramanga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bucaramanga attack 0.86 + Jaguares defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jaguares scores more
41%
level
30%
Bucaramanga scores more
29%

Jaguares at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Jaguares 0–1 Bucaramanga

Bucaramanga beat Jaguares 1-0 in Primera A on February 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería in Montería.