Jaguares 1–1 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bucaramanga

M. Cortés 66'

J. Pérez 42'

4/28/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jaguares43%

×Draw29%

Bucaramanga28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.92

Jaguares

1.21

Bucaramanga

0.92

Jaguares creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.24

creates per match

0.89

0.95

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Jaguares

1.24

Bucaramanga

0.89

allows per match

Jaguares

0.95

Bucaramanga

1.19

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Jaguares+0.14scores more

Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

72%

Jaguares or Bucaramanga

71%

Draw or Bucaramanga

57%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

19%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

70%

Jaguares 2+ goals

34%

Jaguares 3+ goals

12%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

60%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

23%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

60%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.24 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jaguares scores more

43%

level

29%

Bucaramanga scores more

28%

Jaguares at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

S. García

Jaguares · M

8.0

Match Events

42'

J. Pérez↳ R. Robayo

46'

D. Cortés← H. Mojica

60'

M. Núñez← S. Romero

61'

M. Cortés← E. Ibargüen

66'

M. Cortés↳ P. Rojas

73'

M. Barragán← C. Quintero

75'

S. Rentería← S. García

81'

88'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresBucaramanga

Overview

52%Possession48%

24Total Shots6

4Corners1

17Fouls14

Shots

24Total Shots6

4On Target3

18Off Target2

2Blocked1

8Inside Box2

16Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

489Total Passes463

422Accurate Passes389

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

–Red Cards1

0Offsides1