Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jaguares vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
Preview
20:45
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
8/2/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Jaraguay
Big match
36%
Atletico Nacional
model favours
35%29%36%

Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Jaguares35%
×Draw29%
Atletico Nacional36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.07
Atletico Nacional
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 195 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.06
Atletico Nacional
1.22

allows per match

Jaguares
0.96
Atletico Nacional
1.08

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
64%
Jaguares or Atletico Nacional
71%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
65%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
14%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
66%
Jaguares 2+ goals
29%
Jaguares 3+ goals
9%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
66%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
30%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
49%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.96 · 139 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 195 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.06 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Atletico Nacional attack 1.22 + Jaguares defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Jaguares scores more
35%
level
29%
Atletico Nacional scores more
36%

Atletico Nacional at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Atletico Nacional have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Style contrast — Jaguares play Defensively solid, Atletico Nacional Possession-dominant
  • Jaguares sit 20, Atletico Nacional 7 in the table
  • Jaguares fall short of their xG (0.5 vs 1.1 expected)
  • Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Jaguares
Defensively solid
Atletico Nacional
Possession-dominant
48%Possession56%
79%Pass accuracy83%
12.2Shots15.2
1.10xGBiggest gap1.49
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
JaguaresAtletico Nacional

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Jaguares
1
Draws
8
Atletico Nacional
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 60%
1–21–21–30–20–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Jaguares
LWDLW
Nacional
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jaguares face Atletico Nacional (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Jaguares hosting Atletico Nacional. Match starts August 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Jaguares host Atletico Nacional at Estadio Jaraguay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.