Atletico Nacional vs Jaguares — Copa Colombia 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Atletico Nacional64%
Jaguares13%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atletico Nacional creates 170% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atletico Nacional ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches
Jaguares away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atletico Nacional attack 2.14 + Jaguares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.78
Jaguares attack 0.84 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.66
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 64%?"
Atletico Nacional at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 64% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
Real Soacha
Millonarios
Deportivo Pereira
America de Cali
Deportivo Cali
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
Llaneros
Alianza Valledupar
Junior
Envigado
Popayan
Águilas Doradas
Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
ChicoJaguares
Leones FC
Patriotas
Depor FC
Real Cartagena
Orsomarso
Cucuta
Huila
Internacional Palmira
Quindio
Ind. Yumbo
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
Tigres FC
Real SantanderIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Atletico Nacional host Jaguares on Friday, 25 October 2024 at 01:30. The match is part of the Copa Colombia 2019/2020 season.
Copa Colombia: Atletico Nacional 2–1 Jaguares
Atletico Nacional beat Jaguares 2-1 in Copa Colombia on October 25, 2024.
Goals: K. Viveros (15'), D. Ceter (28'), E. Cardona (88').
The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.