Jaguares 2–1 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

P. Rojas 86' (pen)

J. Viveros 41'

Francisco da Costa 52'

2/4/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 3Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Jaguares38%

×Draw30%

Atletico Nacional33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.02

Jaguares

1.12

Atletico Nacional

1.02

Jaguares creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

0.88

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Jaguares

1.20

Atletico Nacional

1.17

allows per match

Jaguares

0.88

Atletico Nacional

1.04

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Jaguares-0.20scores less

Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

67%

Jaguares or Atletico Nacional

70%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

62%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

15%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

67%

Jaguares 2+ goals

31%

Jaguares 3+ goals

10%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

64%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

27%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

54%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.88 · 6 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.20 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Atletico Nacional attack 1.17 + Jaguares defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jaguares scores more

38%

level

30%

Atletico Nacional scores more

33%

Jaguares at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Viveros

Jaguares · M

7.6

Match Events

12'

Jhon Solis

16'

Cristián Zapata

36'

Dorlan Pabón

41'

J. Viveros↳ J. Guevara

46'

Y. Arboleda← G. Meléndez

46'

52'

56'

59'

75'

77'

77'

Armando Araque← O. Duarte

86'

P. RojasPenalty

87'

Ó. Perea← D. Pabón

88'

J. Torres← Y. Candelo

90+6'

Jorge Soto

90'

K. Mosquera← J. Viveros

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresAtletico

Overview

41%Possession59%

17Total Shots15

4Corners4

12Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots15

5On Target5

7Off Target4

5Blocked6

11Inside Box6

6Outside Box9

Passing

41%Possession59%

330Total Passes489

257Accurate Passes424

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0