Jaguares 1–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

J. Villota 71'

3/16/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 8Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Jaguares46%

×Draw29%

America de Cali25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.83

Jaguares

1.25

America de Cali

0.83

Jaguares creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

1.20

creates per match

0.78

0.88

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Jaguares

1.20

America de Cali

0.78

allows per match

Jaguares

0.88

America de Cali

1.30

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Jaguares-0.20scores less

America de Cali-0.03on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

75%

Jaguares or America de Cali

71%

Draw or America de Cali

54%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

21%

America de Cali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

71%

Jaguares 2+ goals

36%

Jaguares 3+ goals

13%

America de Cali 1+ goals

56%

America de Cali 2+ goals

20%

America de Cali 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

65%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.88 · 6 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.20 + America de Cali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

America de Cali attack 0.78 + Jaguares defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jaguares scores more

46%

level

29%

America de Cali scores more

25%

Jaguares at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Villota

Jaguares · M

7.7

Match Events

43'

46'

48'

55'

57'

58'

D. Bottinelli← G. Carvajal

58'

J. Cuero← C. Dájome

59'

Juan Angulo

63'

Diego Herner

68'

L. Escalante← D. Contreras

70'

D. Arboleda← D. Herner

71'

J. Villota↳ F. Castillo

78'

Leonardo Escorcia

82'

Avimiled Rivas

90'

Fabio Castillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresAmerica

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots8

4Corners5

12Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots8

3On Target1

8Off Target6

6Blocked1

8Inside Box1

9Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

476Total Passes387

406Accurate Passes303

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Primera A: Jaguares 1–0 America de Cali

Jaguares beat America de Cali 1-0 in Primera A on March 16, 2018.

Goals: J. Villota (71').

Jaguares controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria in Monteria.

Jaguares vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Jaguares 1–0 America de Cali