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America de Cali vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jaguares
Jaguares
2/23/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 8Olimpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

America de Cali58%
×Draw25%
Jaguares17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.59
Jaguares
0.72

America de Cali creates 121% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 138 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.49
Jaguares
0.67

allows per match

America de Cali
0.77
Jaguares
1.69

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
83%
America de Cali or Jaguares
75%
Draw or Jaguares
42%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
31%
Jaguares wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
80%
America de Cali 2+ goals
47%
America de Cali 3+ goals
21%
Jaguares 1+ goals
51%
Jaguares 2+ goals
16%
Jaguares 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
78%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 190 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.69 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Jaguares defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Jaguares attack 0.67 + America de Cali defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

America de Cali scores more
58%
level
25%
Jaguares scores more
17%

America de Cali at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Jaguares

America de Cali beat Jaguares 3-0 in Primera A on February 23, 2026.

The match was played at Olimpico Pascual Guerrero in Cali.