Jagodina 1–0 Žitorađa: Result & Stats

Jagodina

FT

1 – 0

Žitorađa

10/28/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jagodina83%

×Draw11%

Žitorađa6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JagodinaExpected goals in this matchŽitorađa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

0.65

Jagodina

2.96

Žitorađa

0.65

Jagodina creates 355% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 15 away

1.85

creates per match

0.53

0.76

allows per match

4.07

creates per match

Jagodina

1.85

Žitorađa

0.53

allows per match

Jagodina

0.76

Žitorađa

4.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagodina+0.00on par

Žitorađa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagodina ↓

Žitorađa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Jagodina or draw

94%

Jagodina or Žitorađa

89%

Draw or Žitorađa

17%

Winning margin

Jagodina wins by 2+

64%

Žitorađa wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Jagodina 1+ goals

95%

Jagodina 2+ goals

79%

Jagodina 3+ goals

55%

Žitorađa 1+ goals

48%

Žitorađa 2+ goals

14%

Žitorađa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Jagodina (draw refunded)

94%

Žitorađa (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagodina at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 82 matches

Žitorađa away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagodina attack 1.85 + Žitorađa defence 4.07 → ÷2 → 2.96

Žitorađa attack 0.53 + Jagodina defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Jagodina scores more

83%

level

11%

Žitorađa scores more

6%

Jagodina at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Jagodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff