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Jagodina vs Toplicanin Prokuplje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jagodina
Jagodina
FT
2 – 1
Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
6/11/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 30Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Jagodina61%
×Draw22%
Toplicanin Prokuplje18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagodina
1.93
Toplicanin Prokuplje
0.93

Jagodina creates 108% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 42 away

creates per match

Jagodina
1.85
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

allows per match

Jagodina
0.76
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.00

finishing

Jagodina+0.00on par
Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagodina ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jagodina or draw
82%
Jagodina or Toplicanin Prokuplje
78%
Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje
39%

Winning margin

Jagodina wins by 2+
36%
Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jagodina 1+ goals
85%
Jagodina 2+ goals
57%
Jagodina 3+ goals
30%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
61%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
24%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jagodina (draw refunded)
77%
Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagodina at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 82 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagodina attack 1.85 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Jagodina defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Jagodina scores more
61%
level
22%
Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
18%

Jagodina at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Jagodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagodina vs Toplicanin Prokuplje

Jagodina beat Toplicanin Prokuplje 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Jagodina.